A guide for revising your Theory of Change
We’ve all been there: after spending considerable time and effort crafting a perfect theory of change - comprehensive, evidence-based, even visually pleasing - we find that only a few people really understand it, and hardly anyone is making use of it. Annual reports are written, pause and reflect sessions are held, but the TOC remains untouched. What was meant to be a compass for navigating a development challenge and a yardstick for monitoring has essentially become a dust-coated term paper or infographic.
Why is this? One key problem is that in an effort to effectively capture the messy reality of complex systems, projects often develop unwieldy theories of change, drawn from the insights of only a few stakeholders. To address this, we developed the Theory of Change Workbook, which focuses discussions on how change can really happen. Even then, many projects do not prioritize reviewing their TOC. Revising a TOC can be a fraught process, as teams may be unwilling to ask themselves tough questions, or unsure of how best to move forward. In response, we are excited to share a new Theory of Change Revision Guide, which we hope will help other projects through the difficult conversations and processes involved in reviewing and updating their TOC.
How does the TOC Revision Guide work?
The guide walks the user through the components of their TOC (making reference to the structure found in the original Workbook), presenting them with broad, hypothetical scenarios about the state of each component. For example, your team might feel that its interventions are on track - you appear to be reaching the right stakeholders, and you are delivering the right forms of support. But it may be worth thinking about whether those interventions are leading to the expected outcomes, or instead producing unintended consequences. Your team may have identified a new entry point for its work and needs to consider next steps. The Guide poses questions for teams to discuss in response to these and other scenarios, enabling more effective conversations that can inform changes to their TOC. The Guide closes with some pro tips on how to actually go about revising your TOC products once your discussions have concluded.
The Guide is self-directed, allowing teams to move through it in their own settings to address the questions of interest to them. Accordingly, the Guide is designed to help teams have their own internal discussions, though a skilled facilitator can support the overall process and help create firmer consensus amongst participants. There is no set agenda for making use of the Guide, but good (or difficult) conversations can last a while, so be sure to set aside sufficient time.
Making the most of the Guide
Before holding a TOC revision session with the Guide, review the guide and familiarize yourself with its functionality. Note that this slide deck is not intended to be used as a standard linear presentation: use the many links and buttons to navigate through the file based on your responses to the prompts.
Secondly, be inclusive when planning a TOC revision session. External participants - particularly local stakeholders - can also share unique insights and help ensure the TOC is on a firm footing. In particular, aim to get outside of your bubble. It’s easy for everyone on your team to say everything is fine and nothing needs to change - there may be strong incentives to keep things as they are. Find stakeholders with different perspectives, including those who disagree with your TOC logic and are willing to challenge your assumptions.
And on assumptions - don’t skim over them. If-then statements from standard TOCs are so often unsatisfying as they don’t engage with the implicit “because.” How is the context around your project changing? What is new? Are your interventions progressing as planned? What risks have emerged? Asking yourself these questions regularly will ensure your TOC is grounded in evidence and responsive to new information.
Once your review process is complete, someone then needs to take forward the task of actually making the agreed revisions. We recommend prioritizing this as soon as possible after your review session so nothing is forgotten. Identify someone in your team who can dedicate time to updating your TOC narrative or visual, and think about who may need to review or approve any changes. Remember to consult closely with any stakeholders who participated in the revision process so ensure any changes to the products reflect their contributions.
We gratefully welcome any feedback you may have on the TOC Revision Guide and would love to hear your experiences in using it. Feel free to reach out with any questions, ideas or insights.
