Utilizing the Theory of Change as a Learning Instrument for Takunda RFSA

Introduction 

Practitioners in the international development field frequently define a "Theory Of Change" (TOC) as a hypothetical set of changes that are projected to occur in a certain situation because of specific coordinated actions. The TOC served as the conceptual foundation of the design of the Takunda Resilience Food Security Activity (RFSA). Takunda, meaning “we have overcome” in Shona, is a $55M five-year (October 2020 to September 2025) RFSA funded by USAID's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) in Zimbabwe. The program is being implemented by CARE together with partners: Bulawayo Projects Centre (BPC), Environment Africa (EA), FHI360, International Youth Foundation (IYF), Nutrition Action Zimbabwe (NAZ), Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN), and International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). The primary goal of Takunda is to achieve “Sustainable, Equitable, and Resilient Food, Nutrition, and income security in Manicaland and Masvingo provinces of Zimbabwe.”

Takunda created its first complete TOC in December 2020, with cooperation from Program Cycle Corporation (PCS) and USAID/BHA. Desk reviews of previous projects by non-governmental organizations and the government, such as the Zimbabwe Household Demographic Survey, Zimbabwe Rural Livelihoods Assessment, and Enhancing Nutrition, Stepping Up Resilience and Enterprise (ENSURE) program, served as the primary sources of information. The TOC remained generally relevant for the first year of programming, which included numerous pilots in the Refine and Implementation Phases. Takunda's Community Visioning efforts included community-entry interactions with both the government and local communities. A total of 92 communities from all Takunda operational zones took part, and 92 community action plans were developed through an open process of prioritizing needs and goals. Following that, the Takunda Well-Being Analysis and the Household Level Census revealed additional insights into community characteristics

Throughout 2021, several studies conducted by the program, including the Gender Analysis, Agricultural Value Chain Analysis, Off-Farm Economic Opportunities and Labor Markets Assessment, and Social Behavior Change Formative Study, addressed information gaps and informed the refinement of the TOC. Major revisions to the TOC occurred at key stages: initially in December 2020 during the Implementation Phase, in 2022 to reassess TOC assumptions, and in 2023 to further refine strategies based on new evaluation and program learnings.

Throughout the TOC refinement processes, based on the information gathered from the studies listed above and other program evaluations and reflections, Takunda’s TOC underwent significant changes that led to improved implementation and results. Outlined below are various changes and adaptations to the TOC and their associated results. 

Change 1: Promoting Off-Farm and Non-Farm Income Sources

The results from the Off-Farm Economic Opportunities and Labor Markets Assessment and Community Visioning activities indicated a lack of private sector involvement in livelihood development. Encouraging private sector ties in livelihood development for off/non-farm industries was seen as paramount, as these links were least established, despite a wide range of existing informal off/non-farm income sources. To improve existing private sector engagement, Takunda added a new output for off/non-farm income generation. Additionally, Takunda is now working to strengthen this effort by engaging suitable value chain participants and associates for both on-farm and off/non-farm value chains and improving the ability of small businesses and producers to productively engage with lead enterprises. Now, we are seeing an increased effort to involve private sector participants in livelihood development and better integration of small businesses with larger enterprises across various value chains.

Change 2: Improving Livestock Management

Takunda was not expressly supporting cattle production in the initial TOC. However, the results of the Agricultural Value Chain Analysis revealed that communities facing high levels of livestock death – from chemical expenses, insufficient extension, or subpar animal nutrition – showed higher concern for the health and productivity of their animals. Consequently, and based on the feedback from Takunda participants, the program added an output to the TOC focused on improved animal health and livestock productivity. Since 2023, Takunda has been collaborating with ICRISAT, an independent research organization serving as a technical partner, to develop, implement, and disseminate treatments that enhance animal nutrition and health, by avoiding and controlling livestock diseases through the manufacture of fodder and community livestock feed formulations. Now, there is an increase in efforts to work with farmers and input suppliers to promote climate-appropriate crops like sorghum, finger millet, and cowpeas, as well as locally produced enriched porridges and better food preservation methods, ensuring year-round access to nutritious food and better-defined livestock production practices.

Change 3: Adapting and Strengthening Village Savings and Loans Associations

Initially, Takunda was focused on utilizing Village Savings and Loans Associations (VSLAs) for participants to fund their livelihood expansion and investments in agriculture, WASH methods, health, nutrition, and education. However, the VSLA Functionality Review revealed that at the program launch, existing VSLA savings were insufficient, casting doubt on the feasibility of participants using VSLA resources for the above purposes. Additionally, less than 10% of young people in rural Zimbabwe are employed in the formal work sector due to the unavailability of formal work opportunities. As a result, Takunda removed the formal employment pathway from the TOC and redirected the focus toward enterprise development and self-employment opportunities. Takunda, therefore, launched a new product that helps users establish VSLAs as a foundation for wealth accumulation, improves participants’ ability to identify and manage successful enterprises, and facilitates connections to formal financial services. Now, the TOC places a stronger emphasis on the role of external public and private actors in supporting outcomes by providing technical assistance, coaching, and mentoring, thereby enhancing the capacity for self-employment and enterprise development as viable alternatives to formal employment, particularly for Zimbabwe’s youth.

Refining and revising the Takunda TOC throughout implementation allowed the project team to constantly reflect on and improve activities to ensure high-quality outcomes for participants. The changes outlined above are only a few examples of the work the team took to improve the TOC but reflect the importance of taking iterative approaches to projects. 

Written by Rumbidzai Matemba-Mutasa, and Ana Madero with contributions from Emily Janoch and Sairana Ahsan.