Charting Uncertainty: Scenario Planning in a Complex Environment

As a complement to the development of a Strategic Framework (SF) for USAID/Sudan, the USAID/Sudan team developed a set of four drivers of change that would result in different scenarios and accompanying learning and monitoring approaches to enable the Mission to nimbly shift and pivot its programming and operations in response to changes in country context. Scenario planning is an adaptive management tool that the Mission adopted to help guide programming direction through Sudan’s fluid environment. By strengthening its capacity to anticipate, respond, and adapt through its scenario planning process and related, periodic pause and reflect moments, USAID/Sudan has better positioned itself to understand and respond in order to deliver more effective and sustainable development results.