USAID's Ex Post Study Series: Sustainability and Scale of Change in Market Systems Development Programs

To expand the evidence base for a market systems development (MSD) approach, USAID is supporting a global series of ex-post evaluations to ask:  What happens to the sustainability and scalability of (1) systems changes and (2) the resulting outcomes, years after a program that adopted elements of the MSD approach ends? The research also offers observations on implications for programming in both the specific country contexts and for global practitioners.

This page presents the findings from studies conducted to date and will be updated as new studies are finalized. Available publications are: 

• Do the Impacts of MSD Activities Sustain and Scale After Close?​ An Evidence Synthesis from Recent Ex-Post Evaluations​: This highly visualized brief captures key findings from the two studies conducted to date (Senegal and Ghana), bolstering the evidence base for MSD. It includes data-rich findings on sustainability, scale, and benefits for target populations (e.g. yields, incomes, the scale of engagement, and satisfaction with the business model). The brief closes by spotlighting six implications for future programming, including the importance of building trust, tailored measurement, and smart use of subsidies.
• In Senegal: Lasting Roots: An Ex-Post Study of Naatal Mbay and the Integrated Finance Model: Download the full report and a summary brief (in English and en Francais) from the first study in the series. The findings show a relatively positive evolution since program closure roughly 3.5 years prior, with three of the four intended systemic changes enduring over time. For example, the integrated finance model has spread beyond the rice sector. The provision of commercial credit to buyers and processors, backed by the third-party holding system, has spread to five other value chains. Hence, across the entire agricultural sector, 37% more companies are accessing 377% more inventory-backed lending than at the close of Naatal Mbay.
• In Ghana: Feed the Future Ghana Agricultural Development and Value Chain Enhancement (ADVANCE) II Activity: Download the full report and the summary brief from the second study in the ex-post series supported by USAID. Three years after the program closed, three systemic changes had endured and thrived, and one did not. There is better and more timely access to agricultural inputs and services targeting smallholder farmers in northern Ghana, with the outgrower business (OB) model lasting and farmers engaged growing by 37%. Influenced in part by the OB role now cemented in the system, cereal buyers, as well as input companies and dealers, see a profitable business case and have expanded cereal purchases and input sales. Yet, the barriers to formal financing for agriculture equipment persist.  

In 2016, USAID also published two ex-post studies looking at similar themes in Cambodia and Zambia.  At the start of this series in 2021, MSP also published a blog, The Great Opportunity and Challenge of MSD Ex-Posts: 4 Takeaways from a Rapid Harvest of Insights which references a number of other ex-posts conducted by USAID and others.