Reimagining Scenario-Based Planning in Mozambique

The global landscape is changing at a rapid pace. As a result, the need for adaptive planning has become more important than ever. However, given the scale and magnitude of an unprecedented health crisis like COVID-19, it remains impossible to try to predict with precision all the potential effects of the pandemic on development programming. In Mozambique, the complexity of the situation is compounded by a number of other potential game-changers that could affect the country’s trajectory in positive or negative ways.

Given the myriad of scenarios that could occur and the resultant complexity, we reimagined scenario-based planning as a tool to test how the Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS) could expand, contract, and shift in relation to a changing context and more fully understand possible USAID strategic (and integrated) responses.

We used a participatory approach that leveraged outside perspectives, expertise from USAID’s Policy, Planning and Learning Office (PPL), and a cross-cutting group of Mission staff. Participants developed best and worst-case scenarios for the highest priority factors and risks that could impact the CDCS and explored strategic responses and potential shifts in programming. The final step was documenting the scenarios and responses in the CDCS.

There were several notable benefits of the reimagined scenario planning. They include a shared understanding of major risks and critical assumptions that underly the CDCS, a formalized framework for assessing trends in the environment, and increased staff capacity to strategically adapt programming based on changing contextual factors.