Webinar: Scenario Planning and the CDCS

The three Missions (Colombia, DRC, and Zimbabwe) developed contingency scenarios to adapt to uncertainty related to changing political space due to conflict, peace agreement negotiations or election outcomes as well as changes to the USG ability to influence change.

• USAID/DRC’s CDCS (2015-2019) incorporated a series of scenarios related to reformers’ ability to materialize, loss of government legitimacy, changes in USG image and funding, more/less permissive environment in Eastern DRC and a significant and catastrophic change to the overall country context. ( 4:26 mark)

• USAID/Colombia’s CDCS (2014-2018) developed plans for USAID's programming under three scenarios: with a formal peace agreement with the FARC (Spanish: Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia); without a peace agreement, and with a peace agreement accompanied by significantly increased USAID funding. (11:52 mark)

• USAID/ Zimbabwe updated their Transition Strategy (2013-2015) in February 2014 to document their adoption of a strategic approach called for under an elections scenario included in the original strategy. (20min mark)